The major indices started out on the upside and then exploded after the 10 AM release of the ADP estimate for Friday’s jobs report. This showed an astounding 263,000 positions being created as opposed to the official estimate of 180,000. Once again, let it be remembered that this organization has been way off in the past and is less frequently correct. We will have the official number on Friday morning. Perhaps the markets had a different idea than ADP because they fell backwards later in the session and closed down for the day. No doubt some of the derailment today was caused by the release of the Fed Reserve board’s notes from the March meeting. The DOW lost 41 today, the S&P shed 7, and the NASDAQ dropped 34 points.
For the second day in a row now, the industrial stocks led out of the gate, along with the beaten-down energy stocks on crude oil maintaining itself over $50 a barrel…but these early gains didn’t last for many. HON, GE, CVX were down for the day while XOM, HAL, MMM, and CAT were up. PNRA soared again on the takeover rumors that finally turned into reality.
Bond yields were a little higher on the return of the so-called “reflation trade” which went into hibernation last month. As a result the 10-year Treasury Note was up to 2.37%. Crude oil was above $51 a barrel and finished at $50.87. Gold was lower to $1,258 an ounce. The dollar was stronger with the Euro down to 1.067 and the Japanese yen was weaker at 110.65 to the dollar.
The overall bull market is now in its 96th straight month. This compares to the average length of 59 months for the 11 bull markets since 1949. It is now the second longest bull market in history trailing only the beauty of 1987-2000.
Donald M. Selkin
These are excerpts from Don Selkin’s Daily Market Notes, abbreviated and updated with permission from the author. Don Selkin is the Chief Market Strategist at Newbridge Securities Corporation, member FINRA/SIPC and provides the Fair Value analysis for CNBC each morning. The commentary provided in this Market Letter is intended to provide timely market analysis and should not be considered a research report. This Market Letter may contain, and is limited to: Discussions of broad based indices; Commentaries on economic, political or market conditions; Technical analyses concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based in trading volume and price; Statistical summaries of multiple companies’ financial data, including listings of current ratings; and, Recommendations regarding increasing or decreasing holdings in particular industries or securities. This Market Letter does not make a financial or investment recommendation or otherwise promotes a product or service of the firm. This Market Letter contains only news, facts, and commentary on information previously reported from a news source believed to be accurate and reliable by the author. These news sources include the following: Bloomberg Financial, Reuters, and the Associated Press.