Following Friday’s late selloff, the market once again is doing what it has been doing all month: go in the opposite direction from one day to the next. Today, the major indices opened higher and have basically kept going on the upside. As this is being written, the Dow is ahead by 300 points, near its best level of the session and the S&P is higher by 28 with the Nasdaq up by 67.
Breadth numbers are almost 3 to 1 to the upside. The VIX, which sort of predicted this by declining even as markets sold off on Friday, is lower once again to 16.47…its lowest level since March 9.
The Syrian airstrikes have not accentuated the tensions in that area and this military action is seemingly a contributor to the optimism that we are seeing today in the markets..
Bond yields are doing little with the 10-year Treasury Note at 2.83% and the 2-year at 2.37%.The Euro is a little higher at 1.237 while the Japanese yen is at 107. Both currencies are stronger against the dollar. Gold is higher at $1,351 an ounce on the dollar weakness. Crude oil is finally taking a breather after its run to three year highs on Mideast tensions and strong demand. Crude is presently lower down to $66.45 a barrel.
Earnings gains for 2017 in the S&P were up by 12%. The 2018 the number has been moved up to 18%, so what we have seen here is the stock market trying to justify those profit advances. For the first-quarter, the gains are projected at 18%. We will see in the coming weeks if that number can be reached. If they do, it would be the best quarter for profits in seven years. In addition, revenue growth is supposed to show advances of around 8%.
The overall bull market is now in its 108th straight month. This compares to the average length of 59 months for the 11 bull markets since 1949 and it is now the second longest bull market in history.
Donald M. Selkin
These are excerpts from Don Selkin’s Daily Market Notes, abbreviated and updated with permission from the author. Don Selkin is the Chief Market Strategist at Newbridge Securities Corporation, member FINRA/SIPC and provides the Fair Value analysis for CNBC each morning. The commentary provided in this Market Letter is intended to provide timely market analysis and should not be considered a research report. This Market Letter may contain, and is limited to: Discussions of broad based indices; Commentaries on economic, political or market conditions; Technical analyses concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based in trading volume and price; Statistical summaries of multiple companies’ financial data, including listings of current ratings; and, Recommendations regarding increasing or decreasing holdings in particular industries or securities. This Market Letter does not make a financial or investment recommendation or otherwise promotes a product or service of the firm. This Market Letter contains only news, facts, and commentary on information previously reported from a news source believed to be accurate and reliable by the author. These news sources include the following: Bloomberg Financial, Reuters, and the Associated Press.