Is the DOW finally going to end its ignominious possibility of nine straight lower days today? It hasn’t been on a losing streak like this since 1978. It certainly looks like the losing streak is ending today as the session is into its final 90 minutes and the DOW is moving higher. The DOW is being helped primarily by good gains in the energy components CVX and XOM. These companies are higher by reacting to a sharp rise in crude oil prices to $68.55 a barrel. OPEC is raising production by only 600,000 barrels a day, less than what market experts had feared. In addition, many of the other recently beaten-down components are coming in higher after their downturns over the past several sessions.
The S&P 500 index is higher by 11 to 2761. The DOW is ahead by 160 as this is being written. In a reversal of the recent pattern, the NASDAQ is lower by 13 and the Russell 200 is down by 1 point. Several of the large technology leaders appear to have run out of steam at current levels. The auto stocks are lower once again as the President threatened to put tariffs of 20% on imports of autos from the E.U. This declaration is leading to further declines in the shares of Daimler and BMW for the second day in a row.
Breadth numbers are strong at a better than 2 to 1 upside ratio and the VIX is coming back down with a loss of .94 to 13.70.
Bond yields are a little higher at 2.91% for the 10-year Treasury Note and 2.55% for the 2-year Note. The Euro is higher at 1.165 on stronger economic reports there…the E.C.B. can use this to justify their recent decision to end the QE tapering. The Japanese yen is doing very little at 110. Gold is trying to stabilize at $1,269 an ounce.
The overall bull market is now in its 110th straight month. This compares to the average length of 59 months for the 11 bull markets since 1949. It is now the second longest bull market in history, trailing only the 1987-2000 record length of time.
Donald M. Selkin
These are excerpts from Don Selkin’s Daily Market Notes, abbreviated and updated with permission from the author. Don Selkin is the Chief Market Strategist at Newbridge Securities Corporation, member FINRA/SIPC and provides the Fair Value analysis for CNBC each morning. The commentary provided in this Market Letter is intended to provide timely market analysis and should not be considered a research report. This Market Letter may contain, and is limited to: Discussions of broad based indices; Commentaries on economic, political or market conditions; Technical analyses concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based in trading volume and price; Statistical summaries of multiple companies’ financial data, including listings of current ratings; and, Recommendations regarding increasing or decreasing holdings in particular industries or securities. This Market Letter does not make a financial or investment recommendation or otherwise promotes a product or service of the firm. This Market Letter contains only news, facts, and commentary on information previously reported from a news source believed to be accurate and reliable by the author. These news sources include the following: Bloomberg Financial, Reuters, and the Associated Press.