For the market historians out there, on the 100th trading day of the year, last Thursday, the S&P was ahead by 7.9%. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has never finished the year lower when it had gained at least 7.5% in that time period. This has occurred 23 times. On 20 of those occasions, the S&P 500 it continued to rise with an average gain of 9% for the remainder of the year. So, history is surely on the market’s side for a decent year in 2017 according to this statistic.
Today, the DOW lost 50, the S&P dropped 2, and the NASDAQ fell 7 points. Gold and crude oil were slightly lower and the VIX gained nearly 6%.
With the first-quarter earnings season over, there are a number of important economic reports coming out this week. These will culminate in the May jobs report that is due on Friday. The lineup is: Today – April personal income and spending, which rose by 0.4% and 0.2% respectively…the latter was the best gain in four months. May Consumer Confidence declined to 117.9…the lowest since February. The April Case-Shiller Home Price Index continued to expand to a gain of 5.4%; Wednesday – The May Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Survey, ADP estimate for Friday’s jobs report; Thursday – First-quarter productivity, April construction spending, May ISM Manufacturing Survey, and weekly jobless claims; Friday – The April trade deficit plus the May jobs report for which the estimate is 175,000 compared to the prior month’s 211,000.
Donald M. Selkin
These are excerpts from Don Selkin’s Daily Market Notes, abbreviated and updated with permission from the author. Don Selkin is the Chief Market Strategist at Newbridge Securities Corporation, member FINRA/SIPC and provides the Fair Value analysis for CNBC each morning. The commentary provided in this Market Letter is intended to provide timely market analysis and should not be considered a research report. This Market Letter may contain, and is limited to: Discussions of broad based indices; Commentaries on economic, political or market conditions; Technical analyses concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based in trading volume and price; Statistical summaries of multiple companies’ financial data, including listings of current ratings; and, Recommendations regarding increasing or decreasing holdings in particular industries or securities. This Market Letter does not make a financial or investment recommendation or otherwise promotes a product or service of the firm. This Market Letter contains only news, facts, and commentary on information previously reported from a news source believed to be accurate and reliable by the author. These news sources include the following: Bloomberg Financial, Reuters, and the Associated Press.